JEE Advance - Mathematics (2024 - Paper 1 Online - No. 2)

A student appears for a quiz consisting of only true-false type questions and answers all the questions. The student knows the answers of some questions and guesses the answers for the remaining questions. Whenever the student knows the answer of a question, he gives the correct answer. Assume that the probability of the student giving the correct answer for a question, given that he has guessed it, is $\frac{1}{2}$. Also assume that the probability of the answer for a question being guessed, given that the student's answer is correct, is $\frac{1}{6}$. Then the probability that the student knows the answer of a randomly chosen question is :
$\frac{1}{12}$
$\frac{1}{7}$
$\frac{5}{7}$
$\frac{5}{12}$

Explanation

We can solve this problem using Bayes' theorem. Let's define the following events :

$A$: The student knows the answer of a randomly chosen question.

$B$: The student guesses the answer of a randomly chosen question.

$C$: The student gives the correct answer to a question.

We are asked to find the probability that the student knows the answer of a randomly chosen question, i.e., $P(A | C)$. According to Bayes' theorem,

$$ P(A | C) = \frac{P(C | A) \cdot P(A)}{P(C)} $$

We need to find the values of $P(C | A)$, $P(A)$, and $P(C)$. Let's proceed step by step :

1. $P(C | A)$ is the probability that the student gives the correct answer given that he knows the answer. Since he knows the answer, he will definitely give the correct answer. Therefore,

$$ P(C | A) = 1 $$

2. $P(A)$ is the probability that the student knows the answer of a randomly chosen question. We don't have this value directly, and we will denote it as $P(A)$. Likewise, the probability that the student guesses the answer is $P(B) = 1 - P(A)$.

3. $P(C)$ is the total probability that the student gives the correct answer. This can be calculated using the Law of Total Probability :

$$ P(C) = P(C | A) \cdot P(A) + P(C | B) \cdot P(B) $$

Where:

$$ P(C | B) = \frac{1}{2} $$

(The probability that the student gives the correct answer given that he guessed it), and

$$ P(B | C) = \frac{1}{6} $$

(The probability that the answer was guessed given the student's answer is correct).

We also have the relation :

$$ P(B | C) = \frac{P(C | B) \cdot P(B)}{P(C)} $$

Substitute the known values and simplify :

$$ \frac{1}{6} = \frac{\frac{1}{2} \cdot P(B)}{P(C)} $$

Solving for $P(C)$ gives :

$$ P(C) = 3 \cdot P(B) $$

From $P(B) = 1 - P(A)$, we get :

$$ P(C) = 3 \cdot (1 - P(A)) $$

We also know from our Law of Total Probability calculation :

$$ P(C) = P(A) + \frac{1}{2} \cdot (1 - P(A)) $$

Equate the two expressions for $P(C)$ :

$$ P(A) + \frac{1}{2} \cdot (1 - P(A)) = 3 \cdot (1 - P(A)) $$

Simplify this equation:

$$ P(A) + \frac{1}{2} - \frac{1}{2} \cdot P(A) = 3 - 3 \cdot P(A) $$

$$ P(A) - \frac{1}{2} \cdot P(A) + \frac{1}{2} = 3 - 3 \cdot P(A) $$

$$ \frac{1}{2} \cdot P(A) + \frac{1}{2} = 3 - 3 \cdot P(A) $$

$$ \frac{7}{2} \cdot P(A) = \frac{5}{2} $$

$$ P(A) = \frac{5}{7} $$

Thus, the probability that the student knows the answer of a randomly chosen question is :

$$ \boxed{\frac{5}{7}} $$

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