JEE MAIN - Mathematics (2024 - 8th April Evening Shift - No. 3)
Explanation
To solve this problem, we use Bayes' theorem. Let's define the events:
- $$X$$: Selecting bag $$X$$
- $$Y$$: Selecting bag $$Y$$
- $$Z$$: Selecting bag $$Z$$
- $$A$$: Drawing a one-rupee coin
We are given that a bag is selected at random, so the probabilities for choosing any of the bags are:
$$P(X) = P(Y) = P(Z) = \frac{1}{3}$$
Next, we need the probability of drawing a one-rupee coin from each bag:
- From bag $$X$$: $$P(A|X) = \frac{5}{5+4} = \frac{5}{9}$$
- From bag $$Y$$: $$P(A|Y) = \frac{4}{4+5} = \frac{4}{9}$$
- From bag $$Z$$: $$P(A|Z) = \frac{3}{3+6} = \frac{3}{9} = \frac{1}{3}$$
We need to find the probability that the coin came from bag $$Y$$ given that a one-rupee coin was drawn, i.e., we need $$P(Y|A)$$. Using Bayes' theorem:
$$P(Y|A) = \frac{P(A|Y) \cdot P(Y)}{P(A)}$$
To find $$P(A)$$, the total probability of drawing a one-rupee coin can be calculated as follows:
$$P(A) = P(A|X) \cdot P(X) + P(A|Y) \cdot P(Y) + P(A|Z) \cdot P(Z)$$
Substituting the values:
$$P(A) = \left(\frac{5}{9} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{9} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right)$$
Calculating the above, we get:
$$P(A) = \frac{5}{27} + \frac{4}{27} + \frac{1}{9}$$
Note that $$\frac{1}{9} = \frac{3}{27}$$, so:
$$P(A) = \frac{5}{27} + \frac{4}{27} + \frac{3}{27} = \frac{12}{27} = \frac{4}{9}$$
Now, substituting back into Bayes' theorem:
$$P(Y|A) = \frac{\left(\frac{4}{9}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)}{\frac{4}{9}} = \frac{4}{9} \cdot \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{9}{4} = \frac{1}{3}$$
Hence, the probability that the coin came from bag $$Y$$ is:
Option B: $$\frac{1}{3}$$
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