JEE MAIN - Mathematics (2024 - 4th April Morning Shift - No. 12)
Explanation
Let's denote the events as follows :
Let $$ A_1, A_2, $$ and $$ A_3 $$ be the events that urns A, B, and C are chosen, respectively.
Let $$ B $$ be the event that a black ball is drawn.
We need to find the probability that the chosen urn is A given that a black ball is drawn, which is $$ P(A_1|B) $$.
Using Bayes' theorem, we have :
$$ P(A_1|B) = \frac{P(B|A_1)P(A_1)}{P(B)} $$
First, we calculate each term individually :
1. The probability of choosing any urn, since they are chosen at random :
$$ P(A_1) = P(A_2) = P(A_3) = \frac{1}{3} $$
2. The probability of drawing a black ball from each urn :
Urn A: $$ P(B|A_1) = \frac{5}{12} $$
Urn B: $$ P(B|A_2) = \frac{7}{12} $$
Urn C: $$ P(B|A_3) = \frac{6}{12} = \frac{1}{2} $$
3. The total probability of drawing a black ball, $$ P(B) $$ :
$$ P(B) = P(B|A_1)P(A_1) + P(B|A_2)P(A_2) + P(B|A_3)P(A_3) $$
$$ P(B) = \frac{5}{12} \cdot \frac{1}{3} + \frac{7}{12} \cdot \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{3} $$
$$ P(B) = \frac{5}{36} + \frac{7}{36} + \frac{6}{36} $$
$$ P(B) = \frac{18}{36} = \frac{1}{2} $$
Now, substitute these into Bayes' theorem :
$$ P(A_1|B)= \frac{P(B|A_1)P(A_1)}{P(B)} $$
$$ P(A_1|B) = \frac{\frac{5}{12} \cdot \frac{1}{3}}{\frac{1}{2}} $$
$$ P(A_1|B) = \frac{\frac{5}{36}}{\frac{1}{2}} $$
$$ P(A_1|B) = \frac{5}{18} $$
Therefore, the probability that the black ball drawn is from urn A is option C :
$$ \frac{5}{18} $$
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